EU: Crop prospects are generally estimated as good to very good
Analysts estimate crop prospects are generally good to very good in the EU. Rains were abundant from Portugal to Poland and Hungary. The optimistic picture became a bit clouded recently due to the unending rainfalls and very cold temperatures. Crops on heavy soils may have suffered. The Iberian Peninsula will harvest more than double of last year’s crop.
Plantings of spring barley in the four largest malting barley countries of the EU (Denmark, Germany, France, UK) are down by 100,000 ha, much less dramatic than expected. In Germany the official estimate is 577,000 ha vs. 602,000 ha last year. Analysts would, however, expect a malting barley (winter and spring) surplus of less than 1 Million tons. The big question is, how will farmers react to the bio-energy temptation, when they plant their crops for 2007?
Experts expect a reduced barley, especially spring barley acreage. As there were a number of short positions in the market, old crop malting barley prices became firm, specifically on the German Rhine, where contracts were concluded upto EUR 150.00 delivered. In the month of May 50,000 tons of zero-refunds were booked, probably all for malting barley exports.
New crop barley is very steady: French barley, July, FOB Creil, 2rs Scarlett EUR 120.50, 6rw Esterel 106.00. UK 2rs Optic October, FOB South/East Coast EUR 124.00. Danish 2rs, October, FOB Baltic port 128.50/130.50 depending on variety. German 2rs, ex-harvest, delivered maltings S.W. Germany, EUR 133.00.
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